Trump and Xi’s “deal” this week generated headlines, not harmony. Despite another fragile cease-fire in the trade war, it’s the Fed’s liquidity—not diplomacy—that’s keeping this bull market alive. Here’s what to watch next week. Also, check out our free video.
Dear Investor,
The so-called art of the deal marches on, although mostly as theater for the next news cycle.
President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping emerged from their long-awaited meeting on October 30 with what both sides are generously calling an “agreement.” To anyone paying attention, it looks more like a press-release-friendly handshake than a substantive deal.
Xi will reportedly hold off on tightening exports of rare earth minerals, those obscure but indispensable ingredients that make everything from iPhones to F-35s function. In return, Trump says the U.S. will ease some of the tariffs that have undermined global supply chains and investor patience.
Maybe, just maybe, the algorithmic traders can take their fingers off the panic button for a week or two. Let’s unpack what’s really going on and what it means for your money.
The Sino-American “Pas de Deux”
A pas de deux—a carefully synchronized dance for two—perfectly captures this trade deal. It isn’t peace, it’s choreography. Both leaders got their headlines: Trump can boast he’s “winning” the trade war, while Xi can reassure Beijing’s state media that China’s leverage remains intact.
By choking off soybean orders and rare-earth shipments, China wrung tariff relief and a pause on U.S. export controls, while giving up almost nothing in return.
China kept rare earths as a weapon on the bargaining table, and tariffs could snap back the next time someone fires off a late-night social media post. In a few days, the geopolitical brinkmanship will likely start all over again, sending markets on another wild ride.
When the news chyrons start flashing their spin, that’s when the pros at Base Camp Trading roll up their sleeves. We don’t buy the narrative; we dissect it.
Here’s the standout story: the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this week, a move that injected another dose of liquidity into an already buoyant market.
Liquidity is the oxygen of risk assets, and as long as the Fed keeps the spigot open, investors have reason to stay bullish.
Still, markets pulled back after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks on Wednesday, in which he cautioned that a December rate cut is “far from” a sure thing. But keep in mind, it never is. Powell’s tone wasn’t hawkish, just careful.
Another pillar in the bull case is robust corporate earnings growth. For the third quarter of 2025, the blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 stands at 9.2%, according to the research firm FactSet. (“Blended” combines actual results with projections.)
If that number holds, it will mark the ninth straight quarter of earnings expansion for the index, a streak that underscores corporate resilience even in a choppy macro environment.
That resilience was on full display Thursday, when “Magnificent Seven” giants Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) posted quarterly operating results that topped expectations on both revenue and profit.
In the end, fundamentals and liquidity matter more than geopolitical noise. That’s why we remain bullish for the long term.
Crypto’s Dual Role: Growth With a Hedge
It’s also why we’re paying particularly close attention to crypto these days. Crypto isn’t just another growth story anymore; it’s morphing into a hedge.
Crypto bellwether Bitcoin (BTC) and its peers are now behaving less like speculative tech plays and more like digital gold, gaining traction as a store of value when global trust erodes and the dollar wobbles under policy whims.
In an era where tariffs, sanctions, and currency manipulation can upend entire industries overnight, crypto offers a rare refuge. It trades around the clock, across borders, and without the baggage of national allegiance. That autonomy is its appeal.
One of the biggest investment trends this year has been the massive move of institutions into Bitcoin, signaling a shift from crypto as a fringe speculation to a core asset for companies and financial firms.
The smart money is learning how to ride crypto’s volatility instead of fearing it, and the traders at Base Camp Trading are leading the charge. They’ve been zeroing in on the crypto markets, showing how disciplined technical analysis and short-term setups can turn wild price swings into real opportunity.
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines of crypto investing, it’s time to see how the pros are doing it. To discover the easiest way to profit from crypto, click here now.
Economic Reports Amid the Shutdown: Flying Blind?
Next week brings a full slate on the economic calendar. If the shutdown persists, most of the following reports will be delayed.
MONDAY, NOV. 3
• S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI (Oct.) – Offers a close look at factory sentiment; a strong reading could hint at resilience despite global headwinds.
• ISM manufacturing (Oct.) – Confirms the pace of U.S. factory activity; a soft number could spook markets on growth fears.
• Construction spending (Sept.) – Tracks investment in buildings and infrastructure; rising spending can support GDP growth.
• Auto sales (Oct.) – Consumer appetite for cars signals broader demand trends; weak sales may weigh on consumer confidence.
TUESDAY, NOV. 4
• U.S. trade deficit (Sept.) – Gauges imports vs. exports; a larger deficit can pressure the dollar and growth outlook.
• Factory orders (Sept.) – Indicates future production; declining orders may signal slower industrial activity ahead.
• Job openings (Sept.) – Reflects labor market strength; falling openings can hint at a cooling job market.
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 5
• ADP employment (Oct.) – Private payrolls preview Friday’s official report; a big miss could rattle stocks.
• S&P final U.S. services PMI (Oct.) – Measures service-sector sentiment, a key gauge since services account for the majority of U.S. GDP.
• ISM services (Oct.) – Confirms the health of the service economy; a slowdown could challenge the narrative of robust growth.
THURSDAY, NOV. 6
• Initial jobless claims (week ending Nov. 1) – Measures layoffs; a spike can signal softening labor conditions.
• U.S. productivity (Q3) – Higher productivity boosts profits without inflationary pressure; investors watch closely for corporate margin signals.
• Wholesale inventories (Sept.) – Inventory trends can predict supply chain stress or easing; key for retail and industrial outlooks.
FRIDAY, NOV. 7
• U.S. employment report (Oct.) – The definitive labor market gauge; surprises here move markets.
• U.S. hourly wages (Oct.) and hourly wages YoY – Wage growth drives inflation and consumer spending; investors monitor for Fed implications.
• Consumer sentiment (prelim, Nov.) – Gauges confidence; weak sentiment can dampen spending and equities.
• Consumer credit (Sept.) – Tracks borrowing trends; rising debt may signal financial strain or ongoing consumer resilience.
Trade Smarter with Base Camp Trading
With a packed lineup of data and events on tap, traders will need to stay nimble. That’s where strategy and timing make all the difference.
Watch Base Camp Trading’s free video to see how we consistently score fast wins, regardless of market gyrations.